Show the workings

A useful wealth estimate should explain its inputs, its uncertainty, and what changed.

    Methodology, model version 2

    The home page shows the Forbes estimate of $1.051 trillion for 6 October 2026. Calculate now turns it into our estimate by moving it with Tesla and SpaceX share prices, as set out first below.

    Calculate now

    Calculate now runs in your browser. It takes the Forbes reading of 6 October 2026 and adds what his Tesla and SpaceX holdings have gained or lost since the close on that day. Nothing else in the figure moves, so it changes only when a price does. Nothing is made up to keep it moving.

    Forbes reading
    + Tesla shares × (price now − close on the reading day)
    + SpaceX shares and options × (price now − close on the reading day)

    The share counts come from his SEC filings and follow what Forbes counts, so the move matches the reading it starts from. For Tesla that is the 413,152,109 shares in his trust, leaving out the 286,428,773 restricted shares that Forbes removed after his April 2026 agreement with Tesla, and the 2025 award, which has not vested. For SpaceX it is the 4,766,475,230 shares his trusts hold and his 350,000,000 options, which gain or lose a dollar for every dollar the share moves, leaving out 1,302,072,285 restricted shares that have not vested.

    Prices come from the first source that answers. Robinhood quotes both shares through the night on weekdays. CoinGecko quotes tokens on BNB Chain that track each share and trade at any hour; a token price is labelled as one and is used only when no share price can be reached. When neither answers, the latest close on our record is used. A price more than 25% away from the latest close is set aside as a likely error. Every figure says which source it used and when.

    The result is printed to the dollar, which does not make it certain to the dollar. It inherits the rounding of the Forbes reading, the dates of the filings, and any change in his holdings since. The closing prices and share counts are published at /api/v1/prices.json.

    A full count

    A full count of our own, which is not published yet, would build the total from the bottom up instead. Estimated wealth is the sum of attributable equity, eligible option value and other supported personal assets, less personal liabilities. Company market capitalisation is not the same as personal wealth.

    Σ (shares × price)
    + eligible option value
    + attributable other equity
    + other assets − personal liabilities

    Public equity and options

    Holdings need dated beneficial-ownership evidence reconciled with subsequent transactions and share splits. A price observation requires a provider, timestamp, currency and delay status. A Form 4 transaction alone does not establish a complete current ownership balance.

    Intrinsic option value is eligible option count × max(share price − exercise price, 0). Unvested or disputed awards require separate treatment. The independent model does not yet have an approved option treatment.

    Other equity and overlap

    A financing, tender offer or secondary transaction can support an equity valuation at a specific date. Equity value and enterprise value must not be mixed. Ownership percentages must reflect dilution and economic rights.

    When a company owns another featured company, include the economic interest once. Showing separate venture pages never justifies adding the same interest twice.

    Debt, taxes and liquidity

    Deduct supported personal liabilities. Do not treat pledged shares as sold shares, or automatically equate a collateral pledge with the full permitted borrowing amount. Corporate debt should not be deducted twice from an equity valuation.

    Taxes and liquidation costs are not observable from a headline wealth estimate. No invented haircut is applied to the Forbes reference. Any future liquidation scenario must identify its assumptions separately.

    Uncertainty and update policy

    A complete published estimate needs a defensible range, per-input observation dates and a revision log. A stale quote must remain labelled stale; a missing holding is unknown, not zero. Unsupported crypto reserves are excluded rather than inferred from public statements about a token.

    The server-side live endpoint fails closed with HTTP 503 and a null total when rights, holdings or quote checks fail. A publisher snapshot is returned separately and never masquerades as a live model.

    Independence and corrections

    This is an independent, unofficial project with no implied endorsement by Elon Musk or the featured companies. The .org name is not a claim of nonprofit status. Fictional companion dialogue and game outcomes do not enter the calculation.

    For this private release, corrections can be reported in the project conversation. A public editorial contact and named reviewer are prerequisites for a public financial-data release.

    Stock options: exercise cost matters

    For an approved, vested and unexpired option award, the supported model uses pre-tax intrinsic value: option shares × max(0, current share price − exercise price). It does not count the same award again as ordinary shares. This measure excludes time value and is not an after-tax liquidation estimate. Unvested, conditional or disputed awards require separate review and are not automatically included.

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